Whiter and older but somehow less Republican. The GOP is losing its grip on two North County strongholds.
- Republicans have lost voter registration advantages in two North County state Assembly districts.
- Democrats are newly competitive in both Assembly District 76 and 77. Both are currently represented by Republicans.
- The reason for the significant shift in voter registration is unclear, and Census data show that theories about a younger, more diverse population are incorrect.
Republicans have lost major voter registration advantages in two suburban Assembly seats in North County, making Democrats newly competitive in those districts.
Democrats have had a voter registration advantage across San Diego County since 2012, and four of the seven Assembly Districts have steadily become more blue ever since then. But the shift has now reached a point where Democratic and Republican voter registration in two once-conservative North County seats — the 76th and 77th — are within a whisker, giving Democrats a chance to bolster their majority in the 80-member Assembly.
It’s unclear why the districts have shifted. Campaigns suggested that it’s because they have become younger and more diverse, two factors that tend to favor Democrats. Census data, however, show that both the median age and percentage of the population 65 and over has actually increased and, in one of the districts, the percentage of white residents has grown as well.
Both major parties have added members in the past two years, but Democrats increased their ranks faster. Between the 76th and 77th districts, for every net increase of one Republican registered in the past two years, there were about five Democrats added and about three independent.
“If you are an educated affluent suburban voter, you don’t want anything to do with Donald Trump, not just on the policies, but how he talks and treats people,” said Dan Rottenstreich, a Democratic campaign consultant, by phone.
He’s running a campaign for Democrat Sunday Gover in the 77th Assembly District, an area that spans Kearny Mesa, Rancho Santa Fe, the San Pasqual Valley and Poway, and was once bright red. It’s represented by Assemblyman Brian Maienschein, R-Rancho Peñasquitos.
Maienschein and Gover, a businesswoman from Scripps Ranch, are the only two candidates to file statements of intent to run with the Secretary of State. Maienschein’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.